For the first of hopefully many occasions, Clement and I worked together to project/predict the field of 65.
With our overall #1 seed losing to Vanderbilt earlier this week and
stumbling towards a victory against depleted (yet resilient) Kentucky,
you had to drop them from the top spot, right? Wrong. Until UNC scores
their first signature victory on March 8 (and perhaps again on March
16), we don’t feel comfortable placing UNC - who themselves struggled
mightily against Boston College – in the top spot. That said, UCLA
leaps over UNC and Memphis with impressive showings against Arizona and
Arizona State.
On the second seed line, as Clement indicated on
Saturday evening, I was vindicated by Texas’s surprising defeat to
Texas Tech. As a result, they are tied again with Kansas, who I expect
to win the Big XII tournament. Nevertheless, in a season ends today
format, Texas would be a sure-fire #1 seed because they have three
signature wins.
With the top-tier talk out of the way, let’s hit some talking points …
If
Kansas State played Arizona in the 1st round as we’ve projected, how
many pro scouts would be at that game? It’s fun to imagine.
It’s
amazing what Florida (v. Tennessee, @ Kentucky) and Ohio State (v.
Purdue, v. Michigan State) can do between now and the start of their
respective conference tournaments. For that reason, we had to include
the resume-deprived Gators who pass the eye test (barely). Because we
think the Buckeyes will not go empty-handed heading into the Big Ten
Tournament, which should consider reducing itself to a two-day,
four-team tournament, they are included in our last four out.
Despite
their 8-6 record in what many consider (neither of us do) the nation’s
toughest conference, it’s very difficult to take Virginia Tech too
seriously considering that they will have faced the league’s top three
teams (Duke, UNC, Clemson) a grand total of three times in the regular
season. If they win 10 games, then it's almost impossible to count them
out.
Why Dayton? We project them to win out in the A-14 regular
season. With two victories in the A-14 conference tournament, Dayton
makes a strong case for a bid. If the Flyers can resurrect their early
season form, the committee has had the tendency in years past to
forgive ugly losses in January and February for a stellar
non-conference resume coupled with a few wins in March.
Thank
you, Terrapins. We had this baby projected with you comfortably
clinging to a double-digit lead against Clemson … and then you lost.
They remain in the bracket on the strength of their winning record in
the ACC (a win @ JPJ will do the trick), solid true road record (5-3) …
and that win at the Smith Center.
Three from the Valley? NO ….
YES! With a win at Southern Illinois behind the shooting and mohawk of
Osiris Eldridge, Illinois State upped its record to 13-5 in the Valley
and that’s good enough for us so long as they can avoid a shock defeat
at Arch Madness. Moreover, the likely semifinal between these teams
will be an unannounced tournament play-in game.
On the injury
front, we are concerned about how Patrick Patterson’s season-ending
injury will affect the Wildcats. If today is any indication of how they
will play, the #10 seed may be considered disrespectful. Additionally,
Oklahoma will be without the services of one Blake Griffin for its final two games, which may jeopardize Oklahoma’s seeding in the Big XII tournament and NCAA at-large bid prospects.
That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at
phashemi@gmail.com.
The Seedings1: Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), North Carolina (ACC), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Xavier (A-10), Duke
3: Georgetown (Big East), Louisville, Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Purdue
5: Indiana, Marquette, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
6: Washington State, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), USC
7: Clemson, Pittsburgh, Mississippi State, Miami-FL
8: Arkansas, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, Kansas State
9: Arizona, Oklahoma, BYU, Baylor
10: Kent State (MAC), Kentucky, South Alabama (Sun Belt), UNLV (MWC)
Check out the REST and COMMENT at: www.phsports.blogspot.com
Including:
-Seedings 11 through 16.
-Last Four In
-Last Four Out/Next Four Out
-Conference Breakdowns
More commentary!!!
www.phsports.blogspot.com
LATA!
-Clement
Eldridge: Why the Redbirds won in Carbondale and hold the keys to an at-large bid