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Chris Fry Chris Fry created this group on SportProjections.com.

 

2008 San Francisco Giants Preview and Predictions

Contributor: Eric Seidman, mvn.com/mlb-stats

2007 Record: 71-91

2007 Summary: Barry Bonds broke the all-time home run record forever immortalizing Mike Bacsik and putting to rest any talk of performance-enhancing drugs. Or stirring up talk of performance-enhancing drugs. I guess it depends if you're a San Francisco fan or not. The season proved to be the final chapter in his storied career in San Francisco. With the ageless wonder Bonds the Giants trotted out an otherwise ineffective and old lineup, complete with mega-investment Barry Zito heading the rotation.

Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum more than made up for Zito's struggles however both were shorted by run support and a lack of bullpen help. Cain proved to be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball as he went 7-16 while pitching very well in 24 of his 32 starts.

Throughout all of the Bonds hoopla it was seemingly lost that this team has no farm system, average veterans, and no real general direction. With Bonds gone they now lack an identity, as well.

2008 Key Additions: Aaron Rowand, Keiichi Yabu (?)

2008 Key Losses: Barry Bonds

2008 Starting Lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Durham
3. Winn
4. Molina
5. Rowand
6. Castillo
7. Aurilia
8. Bocock

2008 Starting Rotation: Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Valdez, Sanchez, Lowry-DL

2008 Closer: Brian Wilson

2008 MVP: Um... well... hm... Keiichi Yabu? In all seriousness, this team will need everyone to have career years just to reach the .500 mark.

The Giants will be successful if: they realize the current team cannot be successful and begin a rebuilding phase.

2008 Season Prediction: Last place, worst team in the NL. Cain will pitch well enough to win 18-20 games and will struggle to win 11. Zito will continue his struggles to the point that he's placed on the DL with an "injury." Aaron Rowand will come back down to Earth while in a pitcher's park and fans will wonder why he could not duplicate a career year from 2007 that he will never come close to again.

sfgate.com

Villalona loses U.S. visa

Giants prospect Angel Villalona has been stripped of his U.S. visa after he was charged with killing a man in the Dominican Republic. Pablo Peguero, the Giants' representative for Latin America, said Friday that 19-year-old Villalona can't join the team in...

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Giants official: Dominican prospect loses US visa

A top prospect for the San Francisco Giants has been stripped of his U.S. visa after he was charged with killing a man in his Caribbean homeland. Pablo Peguero, the Giants' representative for Latin America, said Friday that 19-year-old Angel Villalona can't...

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GMs to throw good money after bad?

The general manager meetings came and went this week with Milton Bradley still employed by the Cubs, who want to dump the outfielder ASAP after his lousy season that ended with a suspension for his lousy conduct. The Cubs have a serious case of buyer's...

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sfgate.com

UPDATE: Lincecum pot charge dropped by DA in standard deal, which awaits judge's approval

Prosecutors in Clark County, Wash., and Tim Lincecum have reached an agreement in which the pitcher will pay a $250 fine relating to his possession of a marijuana pipe with the drug possession charge being dropped. Lincecum also must pay a $122 fine for speeding. Grant Hansen, a prosecuting...

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UPDATE: Lincecum cited for marijuana possession

Here is the story from a newspaper in Lincecum's home state. More reporting to come. UPDATE: I confirmed the details in the Columbian story. Lincecum reportedly had 3.3 grams of pot on him. That's barely more than one-tenth of an ounce. In Washington state, anything less than 40 grams is...

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Meulens named hitting coach

Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens gets the job fomerly held by Carney Lansford. More here.

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insidebayarea.com

contracosta.com

mercurynews.com

mlb.com

Villalona has U.S. visa revoked

Villalona has U.S. visa revoked

Inbox: Looking at offseason strategy

Inbox: Looking at offseason strategy

Meulens gets right to work for Giants

Meulens gets right to work for Giants

mvn.com/mlb-giants

These San Francisco Giants Employees Must Go

With the collapse of the San Francisco Giants' valiant charge up Wild Card Hill, the Giants ownership group can begin to look back at the 2009 season as a prelude to making a number of critical decisions for the 2010 season. The first item on the "2010 SF Giants to Do" list is the distribution of pink slips to those employees who need to seek baseball employment elsewhere (or who, in some cases, may be forced to consider a career in the aluminum siding industry).

The following San Francisco Giants employees should immediately start working on the first draft of their "I've decided to spend more time with my family" press releases:

1. Manager Bruce Bochy.
The contracts for both Giants General Manager Brian Sabean and Field Manager Bruce Bochy are up, and retaining or removing Sabean/Bochy looms as the biggest decisions team owner Bill Neukom will make at the start of his ownership era. Here's the deal: Neukom has a rare opportunity to make a clear, decisive stroke and take real ownership of the franchise in his name. Beyond the merits or weaknesses of Brian Sabean or Bruce Bochy, Neukom should relish the chance to make a clean cut with the past; even the recent, slightly more positive past.

Bochy is a steady, reliable caretaker who won't screw things up day-to-day. But he is not the guy who will lead a dynamic young team to a World Series victory. Like Dusty Baker, Bochy cannot let go of his crack-like addiction to giving endless at-bats to steady, reliable mediocre veterans who also won't screw things up but bring little else to the fight.

For much of the 2009 season, the Giants batting line-up consisted of four #6 batters (Randy Winn, Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, and Fred Lewis), one triple A batter (Travis Ishikawa), one clean-up hitter who should be batting no higher than 5th (Bengie Molina), and the potent Pablo Sandoval, a actual, honest-to-gosh  #3 hitter. And while Bochy can only play the hand dealt to him, and the team is not likely to sit $9 or $10 million-dollar-a-year players on the bench, the hundreds of wasted at-bats given to Winn, Rowand, Ishikawa, Lewis, Rich Aurilia, and Renteria doomed this team to a third place finish.

Add to that Bochy's utter inability to get Giant batters to play classic small-ball (to bunt, to move runners, to take walks, and to be aggressive on the bases), and you have a manager who abandoned the team's only legitimate offensive strategy.

That's why a new manager is needed. And fast. And if Brian Sabean is also given a gold watch, I do not believe the earth's rotation would stop.

2.
Pitching Coach Dave Righetti, hitting coach Carney Lansford.
Dave Righetti deserves a chance to be a Major League manager. But not with this team. Here's another critical separation Bill Neukom can make from the past: erase from our collective memories the plodding dullness of Giant hitting, and the tiresome frustration of brilliant, young Giant pitchers who can't seem to advance. That starts with 1) a new batting coach, and 2) a new pitching coach.

No doubt even sports fans in the outer Ukraine are familiar with the Giants' terrible offensive stats--but it's much worse than that. The lack of hitting basics was glaring. There's no plan, no approach, no building blocks being set up; the line-up is adrift, and signing that "one big bat" won't be the cure.

The team's starting pitching can't seem to make it over the final hump to realize their undeniable potential. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner require the kind of dynamic coaching leadership that will take them the rest of the way. So let's go out and find it.

3.
Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, Travis Ishikawa.
The Giants owe Rowand $12 million in 2010 (and in 2011, and in 2012!). They owe Renteria $9 in 2010. But these players cannot be allowed to squander any more at-bats as San Francisco Giants. The team needs to do whatever it can to move Rowand and Renteria, which perhaps will mean eating large portions of their remaining contracts. Rowand has lost whatever steam he had at the plate in his prime, and Renteria's bat and glove are absolutely dragging this team down every time he plays.

Had the Giants simply put Emmanuel Burriss at shortstop in April, the team would have had a year's worth of incredible range at shortstop and legitimate speed on the bases for a mere $400,000; the $18 million they would have saved without Renteria could have potentially brought in an Adam Dunn to bat clean-up in July. What a difference that could have made in the Wild Card race.

Travis Ishikawa is a problem. Watching this kid play first base is pure joy-- there is little doubt he is one of the game's very best defensive first basemen. But Ishikawa has not improved at the plate since he was called up last year:
 

T. Ishikawa

2008

2009 (9/27)

At bats

68

317

Avg.

.274

.262

OBP

.337

.328

SLG

.432

.391

OPS

.768

.719


The question is, how many more ineffectual at bats do the Giants give Ishikawa before they make a decision? There is a need, right now, for power bats in left field, at third base, and at first base. And it looks more and more like Pablo Sandoval's ultimate destination in the infield is first base (unless Angel Villalona can reassemble O.J. Simpson's defense team). This decision needs to be made before Spring Training starts in 2010.

Despite these issues, there is plenty of good news ahead for the San Francisco Giants. New owner Bill Neukom has the chance to bring a dynamic new direction to this team, right now. And the basic ingredients to build a winning franchise can be found on the team's active roster and in their minor league system. Now cross your fingers and hope it gets done.
 

Your 2010 SF Giants: It's Almost All About the Money, Baby

In the middle of their September 2009 battle for the National League Wild Card title, the San Francisco Giants have little time to ponder next season. But that unsolicited opportunity could come quickly in the next several weeks as the Giants arm wrestle Colorado and the Dodgers three more times with 21/2 games to make up in the Wild Card race. Oddly, San Francisco has a last gasp opportunity the final nine games of the season, when they meet the Arizona Diamondbacks five times, and the Chicago Cubs four times-- two teams expected to be in contention in their respective divisions throughout 2009, but who instead royally soiled themselves.

No matter how the 2009 season ends, the San Francisco Giants' front office can look toward 2010 as a major salary savings year. Nine players currently collecting 2009 salaries totaling $38.5 million will be off the books at the close of this season, and that means serious payroll flexibility and positioning for 2010. While there are any number of young Giant players making somewhere around the $400,000 MLB minimum salary who may not be with the big team next year, these nine players made much more than that in their 2009 final salary year:

-- Dave Roberts - $6.5 million (retired early this season)
-- Randy Winn - $8.25 million
-- Randy Johnson - $8 million
-- Bengie Molina - $6.0 million
-- Noah Lowry - $4.5 million ($6.25 million 2010 club option)
-- Bobby Howry - $2.75 million
-- Rich Aurilia - $1 million
-- Juan Uribe - $1 million
-- Dallas McPherson - $.5 million

Even though Molina, Uribe and Howry may be players the team is interested in resigning, that $38.5 million savings cuts a lot of family ties and makes the corner-office-with-a-view ballclub executives as happy as a right wing nutcase at a town hall meeting. But the Giants ownership might stop their collective giggling for a moment when they picture their average fan (plumber's crack showing, bending over to wipe up some spilled Chardonnay on their polished teak living room floor), actually expecting that new found money to be used to sign a legitimate Major League power hitter. Or two.

Imagine the nerve of that sports-talk-show-calling riff-raff, I mean it's not like they shell out a lot of money to... well, ah, never mind.

For the record, the riff-raff in the lower Field Box sections of AT&T Park were recently given a deadline by the Giants to pony up $2,925.00 per seat for 9 potential playoff tickets (which is reimbursed if the Giants don't make the playoffs, or are eliminated early). That would be on top of the $6,000+ cost for one 2009 Field Box season ticket.

Anyway, where were we? Oh yeah, the $38 million in player salaries disappearing in 2010. Keep in mind, during the three years from 2005 to 2007, the San Francisco Giants' payroll averaged over $90 million per year. The 2009 payroll is $82.6 million. Now this is where I say, "So, you do the math", but heck, I'll do the damn math: that's $46 million less spent on player salaries between 2005 and 2010. And that's counting Barry Zito's flesh-eating contract!

More importantly, the Giants have a number of very talented young pitchers and hitters in the minor leagues, several of whom may be ready to join the big club full time in 2010. So the bottom line is: the Giants organization has a great opportunity to construct a serious offensive powerhouse around some extremely talented pitching for many years to come.

As I bend over to wipe up the rest of my expensive Chardonnay, the very prospect of the San Francisco Giants making the playoffs each of the next five years (just like during the late 1990s and early 2000s), transports me to my favorite happy place--AT&T Park in October.

The Major League Baseball Answer Man

The Major League Baseball Answer Man is here to help the casual fan, and those arrogant snobs who consider themselves to be knowledgeable, by answering the questions and concerns America has about its national pastime. If you have a question for the MLBAM, please do not send it in--the MLB Answer Man is not accepting questions from the general public at this time.

Q: Can a baseball team whose hitting and run scoring totals are already very bad stand to lose its number 2, 3 and 4 hitters to injuries and still prosper?
A: You must be talking about the San Francisco Giants. And the answer is no, not in this planetary system. You see, hitting is 38% of baseball, with food vending and special events comprising the other 40%. If your hitters are already smelling up the sabermetric landscape with stale OBPs, ripe OPSs and rotting BAs, having your three "best" batters go down with injuries can only create a bigger stinking mess.

Q: What if your team has the best pitching in baseball, but your hitters suck and you lose a lot of games as a result of that sucking?
A: You must be talking about the San Francisco Giants. Well, technically speaking, you're screwed. But I have a question for you, dunderhead. Why the hell didn't you make a trade in July for a power hitting left fielder when you had the chance? I have seen Fred Lewis' outstanding imitation of Jose Feliciano playing left field (and believe me it is so good it's spooky-good), but it's time to move on. Catching the ball and throwing the ball to the right base is an achievable goal--I've actually seen it done on TV. Trading for Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez was a good start, but what has Adam Dunn for you lately?

Q: I've heard some very smart baseball analysts, like Tim McCarver, Ken "Hawk" Harrelson, and the Phillie Phanatic, say that if a team with three really good starting pitchers makes it to the playoffs, well, just about anything can happen. Is that true?
A: You must be talking about the San Francisco Giants. And, no, that's not true. If vending and special events make up 20% of baseball, and power hitting is also one third, then you'd have to say that starting pitching comprises the other half. But even that's not going to be good enough. My research shows the current Giants batting line-up is scoring exactly 0.25 runs per ballgame-- and that's on a good day. At the same time, Giant pitchers are giving up 0.26 runs per game, which is like having the Hindenberg crash into the Titanic's iceberg. By any rational measure, it's a losing situation. Now, you can factor in the food vending at AT&T Park, which is simply outstanding, and you'll start to see that number go up, but not quite enough to make the playoffs.

Q: If a train leaves San Francisco at 7:15PM on April 2, with good pitching and mediocre hitting, will that train arrive in the playoffs in October?
A: Are we still talking about the Giants here? Listen, you can train your players all you want, but if they can't hit the ball and score runs, you're going to be late. And that's all there is to it.

 

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