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Chris Fry Chris Fry created this group on SportProjections.com.

 

2008 New York Mets Preview and Prediction

Contributor: Jessica Bader, Take The 7 Train

2007 Record: 88-74

2007 Summary: Thanks to an MVP-caliber season by David Wright (.325/.416/.546, 30 home runs, 107 RBI, 113 runs scored, 34 steals in 39 attempts), a breakout year for John Maine (15-10, 3.91 ERA, 180 strikeouts in 191 innings), Oliver Perez (15-10, 3.56 ERA, 174 strikeouts in 177 innings) living up to his considerable potential after a couple of down years, and Jose Reyes (.280/.354/.421, 119 runs scored, 12 triples, 78 steals in 99 attempts) stealing bases like no shortstop has since Maury Wills's heyday, the Mets were 83-62 after beating the Atlanta Braves on September 12, a full 7 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies. Over the remaining 17 games, it all fell apart. Thanks to tremendous stretch-run performances from Wright and Moises Alou (who both hit over .390 over the final 17 games), the team had no trouble scoring runs (98 runs over the final 17 games) despite Reyes's horrendous September slump (.205/.279/.333 with just 5 steals in 9 attempts). It was the pitching staff that faltered - the bullpen was shaky, Maine's near no-hitter in game 161 was one of the few bright spots in his second half (5-6 with a 5.53 ERA after the All-Star Break), Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez pitched less than 10 innings after August 25, Perez's occasional wildness was a problem (he walked at least 5 batters in 4 of his final 7 starts), and while Tom Glavine is now infamous among Mets fans for his disastrous start on the final day of the season (9 batters faced, 7 runs allowed) the 41-year-old's previous two outings (10 innings, 20 hits including 4 home runs, 10 runs allowed) were nothing to write home about, either. The Mets allowed 115 runs over those final 17 games and went 5-12, including a 1-6 homestand against 3 sub-.500 teams over the final week of the season. Combined with a late-season surge by the Phillies (who won 13 of their final 17 games), this led to the Mets finishing second in the NL East and missing the playoffs by one game.

2008 Key Additions: The 2008 rotation will look quite different from the 2007 version, as the Mets traded for Johan Santana and will have a full year of Pedro Martinez (who spent most of 2007 rehabbing after shoulder surgery and made only 5 starts) to look forward to. Right fielder Ryan Church and catcher Brian Schneider were acquired in a trade with the Washington Nationals.

2008 Key Losses: The Mets gave up outfielder Lastings Milledge in the trade for Church and Schneider, a move that was clearly made for reasons other than on-field ability. Of the four prospects traded in the Santana deal, three (outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey) could see time in the majors this year. Glavine returned to Atlanta as a free agent, catcher Paul Lo Duca signed a one-year deal with the Nationals, and right fielder Shawn Green retired.

2008 Mets Starting Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Luis Castillo 2B
3. David Wright 3B
4. Carlos Beltran CF
5. Carlos Delgado 1B
6. Moises Alou LF
7. Ryan Church RF
8. Brian Schneider C

(NOTE: Endy Chavez and Angel Pagan or Brady Clark are likely to see time in left field while Alou is on the DL; Damion Easley may see time in right field against left-handed pitching)

2008 Mets Starting Rotation: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez/Mike Pelfrey

2008 Mets Closer: Billy Wagner

The Mets will be successful if: The regulars stay reasonably healthy (and reasonably healthy means something different for Beltran and Maine than it does for Alou and El Duque), Carlos Delgado rebounds from the worst season of his career, and Willie Randolph learns from last year's mistakes, particularly in the bullpen management department.

2008 Season Prediction: This is a team that missed the playoffs by a single game last year, got Pedro Martinez back, and replaced Tom Glavine with Johan Santana. They have the talent to win their division; the only question is whether they will have the health.

Standings Prediction:
1. New York Mets
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

nypost.com

RANDOLPH FIRES BACK AT FIRING TALK

A fiesty Willie Randolph spent time on WFAN's "Mike & the Mad Dog" show today claiming he wasn't affected by the growing calls for him to be fired. "I'm human. It does sting a little bit because you think about where your heart and soul is and what you're trying to do as far as winning, and, yeah, no one likes to hear that stuff," Randolph said three hours before the scheduled first pitch between his Mets and the Yankees in tonight's Subway Series opener. "But believe me guys, I understand that goes along with the territory ... "It's unfortunate that people sit back who really don't know the game or understand what we're dealing with calling for people's livelihood. ... "It's really kind of sad but that's just way it is, but I accept that and understand that, and believe me, it might sting a little bit, but it does not bother me to the point where it will affect me doing my job." Calls for Randolph to be replaced have grown as the Mets have followed last season's collapse with a lackluster 20-19 start to this season. "To me there's no carryover, to me it has nothing to do with not wanting it, or not grinding it enough or whatever. It's just what people see and want to see," Randolph said. "But we are going to stick together and keep playing hard, and you know what, [we] feel like when we get into the season and toward the end of the season we'll be there." Hosts Mike Francesa and Chris Russo challenged Randolph on a number of topics, drawing rapid-fire responses from the manager sometimes in a raised tone of voice. Randolph became particularly agitated when Francesa asked if the manager felt he had his team's back with regard to arguing with umpires. "Guys have no clue," Randolph said with a sigh. Randolph said he doesn't believe in showing up an umpire because that's what the fans want him to do, and that such antics could cost his team a call down the road. "That perception (that I don't back my players) is just so far out there it is unbelievable," Randolph said angrily. Randolph said he again spoke to Billy Wagner about the closer's dealings with the media. Wagner called out players -- likely, specifically Carlos Delgado -- for not being available to the media after yesterday's 1-0 loss to the Nationals. The Post's Bart Hubbuch reports that Wagner apologized to Delgado, but the topic would be the subject of a players' only team meeting tonight. Randolph told WFAN that the matter had been settled. "I know it's straightened out," Randolph said. "They spoke together and I spoke to them individually." Randolph said he knew the cure for all the turmoil surrounding him and his ballclub. "This is all about winning games. If we were winning more games, then all this crap wouldn't be going on," Randolph said. "If we play well and win games hopefully all this stuff kind of subsides a little bit."

ON DECK: METS AT YANKEES

The No. 4 and No. 7 trains derailed on their way to the Subway Series, which starts tonight at Yankee Stadium (7:05, WWOR, SNY, WFAN, WCBS). "You can't look ahead against this inferior completion before getting to the weekend," Darryl Strawberry warned two of his former teams when talking to The Post on Tuesday. "Every game matters." Not enough apparently. The Mets (20-19) and Yankees (20-22) lost three out of four to the Nationals and Rays, respectively, and come stumbling into this much-hyped series, which starts pitting Johan Santana against Darrell Rasner in The Bronx. When the Bombers faithful said they wanted to see Santana pitch in Yankee Stadium, this is not what they had in mind. "Having Santana and [Chien-Ming] Wang one-two would have been great, but we would have had to risk Melky [Cabrera], who can be our center fielder for a number of years, and [Phil] Hughes, who could compete for a Cy Young year in and year out," Johnny Damon said. But this is why Santana was brought to Queens. It's his job to stop a slide before it threatens to ruin the season, like when the Mets went 5-11 to finish off last season en route to blowing a seven-game lead with 17 to go. And after yesterday's 1-0 loss to the last-place Nationals, the Mets' clubhouse appeared to be less than unified. Billy Wagner called out Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran for not making themselves available enough to the media. So while losing three out of four is not the end of the world, the Mets and beleaguered manager Willie Randolph are desperate for a victory. "I think Johan is a big-game guy," Randolph said. "I think this is right up his alley. He's competitive. He likes to show off." Though Rasner is not ready to claim "big-game guy" status, he has been impressive in his two major-league starts this year. Rasner held the Mariners and Tigers to two runs over six innings and is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. That's comparable to Santana's 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA. Last season, Rasner was the fifth starter in the Yankees' rotation until a line drive against the Mets shattered his right index finger. He did not make it back to the majors after surgery. "You see these guys you've played with, and they're playing, but you're not," Rasner said. "That gets at you, too. I knew if I stayed positive the whole time, I saw myself being back and being successful. It hasn't caught me off guard." With MLB.com

FLASHBACK: BOBBY V IN TROUBLE

FROM JUNE 7, 1999 Bobby Valentine is in trouble. Real trouble. The firing of three of his coaches late Saturday after a second straight loss to the Yankees and an eighth consecutive defeat overall left the clear impression that Valentine is fighting for his job. That became galvanized at a news conference yesterday when Valentine himself said that if his team is not better than the 27-28 of the first 55 games over the coming 55 games, he should be dismissed. He thereby gave players who want to see him go every reason to tank now. So it is official, Valentine is in the shark tank and bleeding. If that is indeed the case for the Met manager, then the guy handcuffed to him should be GM Steve Phillips. This is a tandem act, and if one guy is in trouble, the other should not be allowed to distance himself. "I think we are both linked to the team and we're evaluated as individuals only because different people [the owners for Phillips, Phillips for Valentine] do the evaluating," Phillips said. Yesterday both Phillips and Valentine did a two-man show in public, attempting to put a smiley face on this matter. Their only public disagreement was Valentine, with black humor, saying Yankee Stadium was the worst place to hold a gathering about grim Met news after his boss said it wasn't. During the late-afternoon, 45-minute session with reporters, both men executed verbal gymnastics designed to minimize their disagreements and push a united front. It was not convincing. "Bobby and I understand we are in this together and have to move forward together," Phillips said. Taking the GM at his word means that if Valentine fails, Phillips fails, too. And history says the same thing. Former GM Joe McIlvaine might have hired Valentine, but he was being pushed by then-assistant GM Phillips, who had enlisted Valentine to be the Triple-A manager when Phillips was farm director. Phillips' first major move after taking over for McIlvaine was to hand Valentine the three-year contract under which he is currently working. Phillips said the right man had the job then, and he said it again many times over the past 48 hours - if he meant it or not. Still, Phillips fired three coaches Valentine did not want fired, who were teaching the game the Bobby Valentine way. Phillips denies he is trying to get Valentine to resign. He denies he is isolating his manager as part of a front-office power play that has them on opposite sides of a fractured ownership with just one likely to survive. But, again, these guys either sink or swim in the shark tank together. Because if you don't like how Valentine uses his players, you must remember these are Phillips' players being orchestrated by Phillips' manager. That rotation you hate is a Phillips creation. He traded for last night's starter, Al Leiter, then signed him to the largest pitching contract in club history. He signed Bobby Jones to a four-year contract. He used the disposable income from the release of Hideo Nomo (a player for whom Phillips traded) to sign Orel Hershiser. Valentine might have pushed for Masato Yoshii, but Phillips re-signed him last offseason. Rick Reed, unearthed by Valentine and the now-fired Bob Apodaca at Norfolk, was re-signed by Phillips. The bullpen? Phillips traded for Armando Benitez, Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell, and re-signed John Franco during last season. Phillips traded for Mike Piazza and then gave him the largest contract, at the time, in baseball history. He re-signed John Olerud. He shifted Edgardo Alfonzo from third to second to sign Robin Ventura. He scoffed at the notion of adding Barry Larkin, the type of leader the Met clubhouse is hungry for, last offseason because he was an adamant defender of the juvenile and offensively challenged Rey Ordonez. Phillips signed Rickey Henderson, and acquired Brian McRae, Bobby Bonilla and Roger Cedeno in trades. All of these decisions, except the return of the unproductive, surly Bonilla and the blind faith in Ordonez, can be explained. Nevertheless, Phillips left Valentine the kind of leaderless team that looks to assign blame to an easy-target manager or relatively defenseless coaches rather than ever seek out a mirror. At a time of non-support for his manager in the clubhouse, Phillips decided to remove Valentine's support system with the sacking of coaches Apodaca, Randy Niemann and Tom Robson. When asked what he thought about leaving Valentine with just one coach he deeply trusted (Bruce Benedict), Phillips asked what about Cookie Rojas and Mookie Wilson. Told that his manager was not particularly close to Rojas or Wilson, Phillips either played dumb or was dumb on the subject. Neither is flattering. Either he did not know which coaches his manager relied on or purposely removed those Valentine did. "I am a Met guy, Bobby is a Met guy and Bobby is my guy," Phillips said. OK, he's your guy. That means you both get out of the shark tank or you both don't.

nydailynews.com

Mets and Yankees postponed by rain, won't be made up this weekend

The Subway Series opener Friday night was rained out and there is no makeup date, though it won?t be this weekend. Andy Pettitte will stay on his regular rest and face Johan Santana, Friday night?s scheduled Met starter, Saturday at 1 p.m.

Madden: This train to Bronx should be taken out of service

So much for the Great Weeklong Debate as to whether Willie Randolph should have pitched Johan Santana on normal rest against the last-place Washington Nationals or give him an extra day so can play Friday night against the Yankees.

Joe Girardi, Willie Randolph asked to serve as All-Star Game coaches

Managers Joe Girardi of the Yankees and Willie Randolph of the Mets have been asked to serve as coaches for the All-Star Game in the Bronx. Yankee Stadium will host the game July 15 in its final season.

newsday.com

Reyes tries to ignite on bases, but Nats nail him

Aggressiveness can be a good thing. But with every risky play, there's always the chance a bold decision could turn into a major gaffe.

Wagner rips teammates after Mets loss

The Mets didn't quite make history (despite flirting with a no-hitter) and they definitely didn't make a run, but at least they made some noise.

Yankees' Girardi psyched for series

Joe Girardi is well-acquainted with the Subway Series. He participated in the inaugural Yankees- Mets series in 1997, then again in 1998 and 1999, and served as the Yankees' bench coach in 2005.

mlb.com

Subway Series takes different form

Subway Series takes different form

Randolph honored to be All-Star coach

Randolph honored to be All-Star coach

Randolph, Black in as All-Star coaches

Randolph, Black in as All-Star coaches

metsblog.com

News: Tonight’s Game is Rained Out

Tonight’s game between the Yankees and Mets has been postponed.  As of now, there is no word on when the game will be replayed. …hmm, do i smell a home-and-away, split-admission, bus-across-town double header like in 2000…hmm, any one, any one… Instead, SNY will air the first ever regular-season Subway Series game, with Dave Milicki facing Andy Pettitte. Or, in [...]

News: Fernando Martinez out 3 Weeks

According to Brian Moritz at his blog for the Press & Sun Bulletin, Mets Double-A OF Fernando Martinez will be out three weeks with a strained right hamstring. Martinez missed multiple weeks last year with a hand injury.

News: Willie and Players before the Game

Prior to tonight’s game, Mets GM Omar Minaya was asked if Willie Randolph is in ‘danger of losing his job,’ to which he responded, “No,” adding, “I’m very supportive – and continue to be supportive – of Willie Randolph.” Meanwhile, Randolph told reporters that he called this afternoon’s team meeting, because he is disappointed with how the [...]

Take The 7 Train

Mets at Yankees Postponed; No Make Up Date Scheduled Yet

Tonight’s Subway Series opener at Yankee Stadium has been cancelled due to rain. Michael Kay told me on My9 that the game will NOT be made up Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. There has not been an announcement yet as to when the game will be played, but it seems possible we could be in line [...]

The Opposing Viewpoint: New York Yankees

Welcome back to The Opposing Viewpoint, the place to learn more about the Mets’ opponents from the bloggers who write about them. Coming off an embarrassing series loss at home to the Nationals that culminated in a 1-0 heartbreaker and a postgame outburst by Billy Wagner, the Mets head to the Bronx for a weekend [...]

Game Recap: Wagner Rips Team After Another Loss: Nationals 1- Mets 0

Mike Pelfrey pitched the game of his life, carrying a no-hitter into the 7th inning, but he ended up with the tough luck loss in a 1-0 game. The bid for the first no-hitter in Mets history was broken up by Aaron Boone, who led off the inning with a legit single. Then in the [...]

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