New York Mets

Contributor: Jessica Bader, Take The 7 Train

2007 Record: 88-74

2007 Summary: Thanks to an MVP-caliber season by David Wright (.325/.416/.546, 30 home runs, 107 RBI, 113 runs scored, 34 steals in 39 attempts), a breakout year for John Maine (15-10, 3.91 ERA, 180 strikeouts in 191 innings), Oliver Perez (15-10, 3.56 ERA, 174 strikeouts in 177 innings) living up to his considerable potential after a couple of down years, and Jose Reyes (.280/.354/.421, 119 runs scored, 12 triples, 78 steals in 99 attempts) stealing bases like no shortstop has since Maury Wills's heyday, the Mets were 83-62 after beating the Atlanta Braves on September 12, a full 7 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies. Over the remaining 17 games, it all fell apart. Thanks to tremendous stretch-run performances from Wright and Moises Alou (who both hit over .390 over the final 17 games), the team had no trouble scoring runs (98 runs over the final 17 games) despite Reyes's horrendous September slump (.205/.279/.333 with just 5 steals in 9 attempts). It was the pitching staff that faltered - the bullpen was shaky, Maine's near no-hitter in game 161 was one of the few bright spots in his second half (5-6 with a 5.53 ERA after the All-Star Break), Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez pitched less than 10 innings after August 25, Perez's occasional wildness was a problem (he walked at least 5 batters in 4 of his final 7 starts), and while Tom Glavine is now infamous among Mets fans for his disastrous start on the final day of the season (9 batters faced, 7 runs allowed) the 41-year-old's previous two outings (10 innings, 20 hits including 4 home runs, 10 runs allowed) were nothing to write home about, either. The Mets allowed 115 runs over those final 17 games and went 5-12, including a 1-6 homestand against 3 sub-.500 teams over the final week of the season. Combined with a late-season surge by the Phillies (who won 13 of their final 17 games), this led to the Mets finishing second in the NL East and missing the playoffs by one game.

2008 Key Additions: The 2008 rotation will look quite different from the 2007 version, as the Mets traded for Johan Santana and will have a full year of Pedro Martinez (who spent most of 2007 rehabbing after shoulder surgery and made only 5 starts) to look forward to. Right fielder Ryan Church and catcher Brian Schneider were acquired in a trade with the Washington Nationals.

2008 Key Losses: The Mets gave up outfielder Lastings Milledge in the trade for Church and Schneider, a move that was clearly made for reasons other than on-field ability. Of the four prospects traded in the Santana deal, three (outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey) could see time in the majors this year. Glavine returned to Atlanta as a free agent, catcher Paul Lo Duca signed a one-year deal with the Nationals, and right fielder Shawn Green retired.

2008 Mets Starting Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Luis Castillo 2B
3. David Wright 3B
4. Carlos Beltran CF
5. Carlos Delgado 1B
6. Moises Alou LF
7. Ryan Church RF
8. Brian Schneider C

(NOTE: Endy Chavez and Angel Pagan or Brady Clark are likely to see time in left field while Alou is on the DL; Damion Easley may see time in right field against left-handed pitching)

2008 Mets Starting Rotation: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez/Mike Pelfrey

2008 Mets Closer: Billy Wagner

The Mets will be successful if: The regulars stay reasonably healthy (and reasonably healthy means something different for Beltran and Maine than it does for Alou and El Duque), Carlos Delgado rebounds from the worst season of his career, and Willie Randolph learns from last year's mistakes, particularly in the bullpen management department.

2008 Season Prediction: This is a team that missed the playoffs by a single game last year, got Pedro Martinez back, and replaced Tom Glavine with Johan Santana. They have the talent to win their division; the only question is whether they will have the health.

Standings Prediction:
1. New York Mets
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins